Tuesday, July 23, 2013

...the most resilient SEA market

Nomura says Phl is most resilient market in SEA

            


MANILA, Philippines - Foreign investors should go back to Philippine financial markets as Southeast Asia’s fastest growing economy in the first quarter boasts of resiliency against potential threats to growth versus its neighbors, an investment bank said in a report.

“We find ourselves more comfortable with the macro-momentum in the Philippines compared with Thailand or Indonesia. This serves as a usual backdrop to our allocation,” Nomura said in its report titled Asean Navigator released yesterday.

“We are now overweight (for) Singapore and Philippines. We are neutral (in) Thailand and Indonesia. And we are underweight (in) Malaysia,” it added.

The countries mentioned in the report comprised five of the 10 nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).

According to Nomura, investors should place 10.2 percent of their Asean assets in Philippine financial markets, including bonds and equities. The bank’s recommendation is higher than the benchmark of 6.3 percent.

Across the region, the bulk of the placements is still recommended to be invested in Singapore at 43.9 percent, higher than benchmark’s 33.7 percent. Nomura, meanwhile, was “neutral” for Indonesia and Thailand at 17.3 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

The lone “underweight” was Malaysia, where the Japanese bank told investors to just set aside 13.5 percent of their total Asean portfolios, much lower than the benchmark of 25 percent.

On the stock market, Nomura said investors should infuse more money in local holding companies and other services, wind down on banks, property and mining, and stay neutral on utilities, consumer firms and telecommunications.

In defending its advice, Nomura noted that the Philippines has the “most resilient” economy in the region now, characterized by a 7.8-percent growth in the first three months of the year, beating market expectations.

The country’s bright prospects, it said, easily showed during the financial market volatility from May to June when signs of recovery in the US prompted policymakers there to signal a tapering of stimulus measures.

Signals of scaling down of the $85-billion bond buying program provoked investors to reposition their holdings back to the US, hurting Asean markets where outflows persisted for months.

The Philippines, Nomura said, was “hurt the most” with a 25-percent drop in the local equity markets just from May to June. This however was survived by the country’s “solid fundamentals.”

 

...the positive economic indicators

Indicators point to strong PHL growth — NSCB


J
uly 23, 2013
 
 
The economy is seen to remain robust in the second and third quarters of this year, according to an index of 11 key data collated by the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB).

In a report released Tuesday, the NSCB said the composite leading economic indicator (LEI)—a short-term forecasting tool made up of data tracking the expansion the economy—increased to 0.152 in the third quarter from an upwardly revised 0.064 in the second quarter.

The LEI “continued its upward trend in the third quarter of 2013, indicating a positive outlook for the country’s economy,” said the NSCB.

“The latest LEI computations show the index in positive territory signifying firmly well for the domestic economy,” it added.

For the third quarter, eight of the 11 indicators, which account for 82.4 percent of the total from 71.9 percent in the second quarter, contributed positively.

Starting with the largest positive contributor, these are: (1) total merchandise imports, (2) visitor arrivals, (3) money supply, (4) electric energy consumption, (5) terms of trade index, (6) hotel occupancy rate, (7) number of new businesses, and (8) stock price index.

Negative contributors, beginning with the largest negative contributor, were: (1) foreign exchange rate, (2) wholesale price index, and (3) consumer price index.

Sought for comment, University of Asia and the Pacific School of Economics dean Peter U said in a telephone interview, “Factors are looking positive for the Philippines.”

U said he is “unsure if the Philippines can sustain the first quarter growth, but I wouldn't discount a possibility of brisker growth.” The economist projected “at least 7 percent growth for the year.”

Philippine output expanded by 7.8 percent in the first quarter, the fastest in Southeast Asia, compared to a revised full-year 2012 gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.8 percent.

Increased remittance inflows stoking retail spending as well as improving investments will be the main factors for growth this year, U said. — BM, GMA News
 
 

...the emerging retail destination

Time to promote Philippines retail to the world - British retail expert


THERE has never been a better time than now to position the Philippines as one of the top destinations for shopping, according to a British retail expert who will deliver a keynote speech during the 22nd National Retail Conference and Stores Asia Expo (NRCE) organized by the Philippine Retailers Association (PRA).
 
 
Ian F. Wade, executive advisor of sainsbury’s—the second-biggest supermarket chain in the United Kingdom, said the Philippine retail scene has many advantages compared to its Asian counterparts.
 
 
“The Philippines offers much better value for money than Hong Kong. It has a greater variety of stores than most countries, some of the biggest malls in the world are all in one city. From a retail point of view, the Philippines has a lot to offer, but you don’t tell the rest of the world,” Wade emphasized.
 
 
Wade noted that five of the biggest shopping malls in the world where affordable and quality products can be sourced are in Metro Manila. “It’s time to promote the Philippines and make people more aware that it has a lot more to offer.”
 
 
The former group managing director/chairman of health, beauty and lifestyle retailer A.S. Watson Group has been visiting the Philippines for the past 27 years. Wade was instrumental in the setup of Watson’s stores in the country.
 
 
“The Philippine retail industry used to be sleepy. It has transformed itself from being ordinary a few years ago to pretty damn good today. Stakeholders are more knowledgeable and more aware of what they’re doing,” Wade explained.
 
 
Wade served as group managing director of A.S. Watson group from 1982 to 2006. Under his leadership, the number of Watson stores grew from 16 to around 7,700 stores, which are found in more than 30 countries worldwide.

Monday, July 22, 2013

...the President's report

President Aquino's Sona (State of the Nation Address)

Posted at 07/22/2013
 
 
 

...the Philippines to the World

Noy: World in love with Philippines

            
A beach in the island of Palawan, cited by President Benigno Aquino III as a top tourist spot in his State of the Nation Address on Monday. RANDY FERGUSON/MALACANANG PHOTO


MANILA, Philippines - For President Benigno Aquino III, the world has "fallen in love" with the
Philippines, which has been dubbed "a paradise."

In his fourth State of the Nation Address on Monday, Aquino cited international publications that recently hailed the as country among the top tourism destinations around the globe.

"Kulang na nga lang po ay tawagin na tayong paraiso," Aquino said, mentioning tourism accomplishments including the 21.4 percent surge in tourist arrivals in the past year.

Aquino mentioned Chinese dailies Oriental Morning Post and Shanghai Morning Post that named the Philippines as the "Best Tourist Destination of 2012" and the "Most Romantic Destination of 2012," respectively.

"Hopefully they will love us more," Aquino said.

He also quoted US-based Travel + Leisure magazine that chose Palawan as the world's "Best Island" and the Scuba Diving Magazine that saw the country's diving sites as the "Best Diving Destination."
 
The Department of Tourism said that 4.3 million visitors arrived in 2011 as it launched its viral advertising campaign "It's More Fun in the Philippines," departing from the 3.1 million arrivals in 2010.
 
Aquino lauded the agency for being on track in its target of 10.0 million tourist arrivals by 2016. The country aims to receive 5.5 million tourists by this year and as of 2012, the country has already recorded 4.3 million tourist arrivals.


Grabbed from SONA technical report at www.gov.ph

"Sa momentum nating ito, tiwala tayong maaabot ng bagong target na 56.1 million bago matapos ang 2016," Aquino said in his speech.

He added that the sector also generated jobs, claiming that 3.8 million positions have been created not only in areas marked as tourist destinations but also surrounding "tourism support communities."

"Ang mga lugar na pinanggagalingan ng pagkaing inihahanda sa mga resort, ng mga souvenir na ibinebenta, at ng iba pang mga produkto’t serbisyong nagsisilbing bukal ng kaunlaran para sa ga lalawigan," Aquino explained.

Best selling American author Dan Brown, however, also made headlines in the country in June for calling Manila as the "gates of hell" in his newly released novel Inferno.

A character in the book described the capital city as one rife with traffic jams, child prostitution, terrible poverty and pollution.

 

Friday, July 19, 2013

...the Asia's outperformers

PH among ‘outperformers’ in Asia, says Moody’s


By Paolo G. Montecillo
Philippine Daily Inquirer
 
 
The Philippines has once again been recognized as one of Asia-Pacific’s expected outperformers, amid weak demand from the United States and Europe that has dragged down the export-driven economies of other countries in the region.

In a new report, rating firm Moody’s Investor Service said the Asia-Pacific region remained stable, despite global headwinds caused by slowing growth in China and a tepid recovery in the US.

“Global market volatility over the past few weeks has adversely impacted asset markets across Asia Pacific in a swift and undifferentiated manner,” Moody’s said.

Moody’s warned that while foreign investments may return to the region following the recent pullout, “capital inflows will likely return with an eye towards risk-adjusted returns in contrast to the indiscriminate search for yield that characterized inflows in recent years.”

Unlike the rest of the region, however, a few countries, including the Philippines, are expected to be more attractive investment destinations given their proven resilience in the face of difficulties abroad.

“Indonesia and the Philippines have featured the biggest improvements in terms of their percentile ranking,” the rating firm’s Sovereign Mid-Year Update said.

“High economic growth, narrow fiscal deficits, and exchange rate appreciation have combined to lead to debt consolidation in both countries and have contributed to the upward trajectory in their ratings,” Moody’s said.

The report noted that the Philippines was one of the few countries that were able to reduce levels of government debt despite the global slowdown that started in 2009. This came as other countries accumulated debt to fund stimulus efforts during the crisis.

Moody’s said between 2007 and 2013, the Philippines’ level of government debt fell by 4.9 percent in relation to its proportion to gross domestic product (GDP). This was lower than the 10.8-percent decline in Indonesia, but higher than the 4.8 percent posted by India.

Amid the Philippines improved performance, Moody’s once again hinted at a possible upgrade of the country’s sovereign credit rating.

Rating firms Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings already rate the Philippines at investment grade, while Moody’s still rates the country one notch lower.

A country’s sovereign rating is a reflection of the condition of its economy since it indicates the national government’s ability to repay its obligations.

“The positive outlook for the Philippines is unique globally, while those for Hong Kong, Mongolia, and Singapore have been revised to negative this year,” the Moody’s report read.


Thursday, July 18, 2013

...the PHL banks

PHL banks stand out for having positive outlook — Moody's

GMA News
July 18, 2013
 
 
The Philippines, however, is “unique among Moody's system globally” for having a positive outlook, which means that the system can be upgraded. 
 
 
The credit outlook for the Asia Pacific region remains stable despite perceived global economic slowdown and volatility in financial markets, with Philippine banks standing out as exceptional, debt-watcher Moody's Investors Service said Thursday.

“Looking ahead, sovereign ratings in the region are likely to withstand the effects of the moderation in global demand and the volatility in global capital markets,” Moody's said in its special report, “Asia-Pacific 2013 Sovereign Mid-Year Update: Broad Regional Stability Amid Continuing External Volatility.”

Specifically, outlooks for banking systems are stable in nine out of 15 rated systems in the Asia-Pacific.

The Philippines, however, is “unique among Moody's system globally” for having a positive outlook, which means that the system can be upgraded.

Hong Kong, Mongolia, and Singapore have been revised to negative this year.

“Although we do not expect banking system stress to materially affect sovereign creditworthiness in these countries, there continue to be important channels of transmission,” Moody's said.

Moody's sees governments “running relatively tight fiscal policies, or continuing with gradual fiscal consolidation.”

Last year, Moody’s upgraded the issue ratings for the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' debts to Ba1 or one notch below investment grade from Ba2 with a stable outlook.

It also upgraded the foreign and local currency long-term bond ratings of the Philippines to Ba1 from Ba2 with a stable outlook.

Moody's cited as one of the reasons for the stable financial system is that it posed limited contingent risks and provided a stable source of financing for the government.

A higher credit rating allows banks and governments to borrow for less.

The debt watcher noted that the region's debt as a percentage of its output is expected move up only slightly, averaging 49 percent for the 2011 to 2014 period from 47 percent in the pre-2008 financial crisis.

“Overall, Indonesia and the Philippines have featured the biggest improvements in terms of their percentile ranking,” Moody’s said.

“High economic growth, narrow fiscal deficits, and exchange rate appreciation have combined to lead to debt consolidation in both countries and have contributed to the upward trajectory in their ratings,” it added. — SOA/BM, GMA News