...the IMF forecast

IMF maintains growth forecast for ASEAN

 

July 16, 2012

GMA News

 

 

The International Monetary Fund has maintained its 5.4-percent average growth forecast for the ASEAN-5, which includes the Philippines.

But it cut its global growth projection to 3.5 percent amid the perceived worsening of the eurozone debt crisis in recent months. The latest global growth forecast was slightly lower than the 3.6 percent the IMF made in April. 

 

“The euro area periphery has been at the epicenter of a further escalation in financial market stress, triggered by increased political and financial uncertainty in Greece, banking sector problems in Spain, and doubts about governments’ ability to deliver on fiscal adjustment and reform as well as about the extent of partner countries’ willingness to help,” the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook. 

 

The IMF said emerging markets like the Philippines will not be immune from the adverse impact of the prolonged debt woes in the eurozone. Nonetheless, it said that the ASEAN-5, which also includes Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam, will manage to grow as initially estimated given their relatively better economic fundamentals. 

 

But the IMF said emerging economies must brace for likely anemic export earnings over the coming months as foreign demand for their goods are dampened by the crisis in the eurozone.

 

“In emerging and developing economies, policymakers should stand ready to adjust policies, given spillovers from weaker advanced economy prospects and slowing export growth and volatile capital flows,” the IMF said.

 

For 2013, the IMF expects the global economy to grow at a faster clip of 3.9 percent. Consequently, it said, the ASEAN-5 may also grow faster at 6.1 percent. 

 

The latest 2013 projection for world economic growth is a revision from the previous forecast of 4.1 percent. Similarly, the latest growth forecast for the ASEAN-5 is lower than the original 6.2 percent. — DVM, GMA News