PHL economy grows 7% in Q3, the fastest in Southeast Asia, says NSCB
At a press briefing, NSCB Secretary General
Jose Ramon Albert said output as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP)
grew 7 percent in the third quarter, down from the 7.6 percent in the second
quarter and 7.3 percent in July to September of last year.
Albert said the results in July to September
pulled the GDP growth to 7.4 percent in the first nine months of the year, or
above government's 6 to 7 percent target for the year.
At the same briefing, Socioeconomic Planning
Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the country remains one of the brightest spots
in region and will continue to do so for the rest of the year.
“We remain to be the fastest growing economy
in the major economies of Southeast Asia... We are second to China,” said
Balisacan, who is also National Economic and Development Authority director
general, noting that China grew by 7.8 percent in the third quarter.
Despite the destruction wreaked by Typhoon
Yolanda, the economic chief noted there is a strong possibility that the
Philippines would meet its output goal for 2013, considering that all it takes
would be 2.5 percent to 5.3 percent in growth in the fourth quarter for the
Philippines to meet its output goal for 2013.
Eduardo Francisco, BDO Capital and Investment
Corp. president, said in a text message, the latest GDP data "shows we have
momentum and why investors should remain bullish on the Philippines.
"Relief efforts for Yolanda will continue and
a lot of rebuilding in the form of investments will take place," he
added.
Government officials, including Balisacan,
earlier said the damage to crops, livestock, and infrastructure in the Visayas
could shave nearly one percentage point from the full-year GDP.
“We still expect GDP for the full-year would
come close to 7 percent,” Balisacan said.
“It's true that the destruction of physical,
particularly private, capital is quite massive. The impact on the GDP is quite
substantial [in the fourth quarter], but we have been growing so fast,” said
Balisacan.
'Real economy has strong legs'
"The sustained expansions in investment
spending and the manufacturing sub-sector continue to provide the needed boost
to GDP growth," Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. said in a research note sent
after the growth numbers were released.
In a separate note, Prakriti Sofat,
Singapore-based economist at Barclays Plc., said the disruption" caused by
Typhoon Yolanda pose downside risks to fourth quarter GDP, "but the impact
should be manageable.
"While we expect disruption from the typhoon
to impact growth in the fourth quarter, we think first half 2014 growth will a
get a boost from reconstruction," she added.
The latest GDP numbers are on a par with the 7 percent median forecast in a GMA News Online poll of economists.
“On the demand side, growth in the third
quarter came from increased investments in fixed capital, reinforced by consumer
and government spending, and the robust external trade,” NSCB’s Albert
noted.
In terms of industry, manufacturing, and
construction contributed much of the output in the third quarter, Albert
said.
In a separate text message, Philippine Stock
Exchange Inc. president Hans Sicat said the data is "encouraging news," placing
the Philippines second to China in terms of economic growth in Asia.
"It's a positive signal that the real economy has strong legs, and
should bolster the fundamentals that analysts and investors look for to
participate in the capital market," he said.
The third quarter growth numbers were within
expectations, Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry chairman Sergio
Ortiz-Luis Jr. said in a phone interview.
"Slower growth was expected in the third
quarter, but seven percent is still good," he said. "For the fourth quarter, the
calamities could even spur expansion due to relief efforts, rebuilding."
On October 15, Central Visayas was rocked by
a magnitude 7.2 earthquake, comparable to the strength of 32 atomic bombs.
Typhoon Yolanda, with sustained winds of up to 315 kilometers per hour and gusts
of up to 378 kph, barreled through Central Philippines on November 8, flattening
towns and cities and affecting millions of Filipinos.
"Economists are projecting a dip in growth because of Yolanda...
[but] the third quarter numbers will help our average for the year to still be
good," BDO Capital's Francisco said. – With Danessa Rivera/VS, GMA News
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