...the falling poverty in PH

PH poverty rate seen falling below 20% starting 2020

Ben O. De Vera

Inquirer.net

16 October 2019

Amid easing inflation and rising incomes, the World Bank expects poverty rate in the Philippines to fall below 20 percent starting next year.

In its Macro Poverty Outlook for East Asia and the Pacific report, the World Bank projected poverty incidence in the Philippines at 20.8 percent by the end of 2019, down from 26 percent in 2015, the latest comparable full-year date from the Philippine government.

The report was released this week on the sidelines of the Washington-based lender’s annual meeting.

The World Bank had estimated poverty incidence in the Philippines at 24.5 percent for 2016, 23.1 percent for 2017 and 21.9 percent for 2018.

Its medium-term poverty projections were based on the lower middle-income poverty line of $3.20 per day.

At that threshold, the World Bank sees the Philippines’ poverty rate further declining to 19.8 percent next year and 18.7 percent in 2021.

“Despite a temporary growth slowdown in the first half of 2019, progress on shared prosperity is likely to continue,” it said.

Partial estimates of the 2018 Family Income and Expenditure Survey showed that incomes of households in lower-income deciles grew at a much faster pace than the average, the World Bank report read.

“Meanwhile, cash transfer schemes from the government will continue to help cushion the impact of negative shocks. Given the continuous expansion of nonagriculture wage employment, rising real wage, continuation of social programs, and stabilizing inflation, the declining trend in poverty is likely to continue,” it added.

In a report last month, the World Bank said the 12-year-old conditional cash transfer scheme called Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps) slashed the nationwide poverty rate by 1.2-1.5 percentage points (ppt) between 2012 and 2015.

4Ps also reduced income inequality by 0.5-0.6 ppt in the same period, it said.