Businessmen expect ’12 to end on a high note
MANILA, Philippines -Businesses are looking to end the year on
a high note on the back of strong demand during the holiday season, but are less
optimistic at the start of 2013, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) yesterday
reported.
Results of the latest Business Expectations Survey (BES) showed
over-all confidence index improved to 49.5 percent in the fourth quarter from
44.5 percent in the third quarter.
The latest figure is the “second highest reading since the
nationwide survey started in the fourth quarter of 2006,” the survey said.
The confidence index (CI) is computed as the percentage of
respondents who answered in the affirmative less percentage of those that
answered in the negative with respect to views on specific indicators.
“The sentiment was very strong for the fourth quarter because
of the holiday season and main harvest season,” BSP assistant governor Ma. Cyd
Tuaño-Amador told reporters in a briefing.
“There was a seasonal and expected bounce in the enthusiasm of
business firms in the current quarter,” she added.
Consumer spending is usually high during the holidays as
Filipinos spend more for their needs and gifts, thereby allowing firms to expand
production.
Aside from the expected Christmas rush, optimism for the
current quarter was driven by expansion of businesses and new product lines,
favorable macroeconomic conditions, introduction of new and enhanced business
strategies, possible credit rating upgrade and continued confidence in the
Aquino administration.
Businesses based in the National Capital Region were more
positive compared to those in other regions although both posted improved
sentiments, the survey showed. NCR CI went up to 54.5 percent from 48.9 percent,
while those in other regions increased to 41.1 percent from 31.9 percent.
As demand however usually slows down after the holidays, firms
turned “less sanguine” with the index declining to 43.8 percent, BES results
showed.
“It was a typical and seasonally determined downtrend in
business expectations next quarter,” Tuaño-Amador said.
Firms were also concerned about the possibility of tight
supply for raw materials and low sugar prices in the world market that affected
the local sentiment, the survey said.
Tuaño-Amador however said the still positive index indicate
the economy can bank on businesses to drive economic growth next year, when a
higher six- to seven-percent target is aimed. The local economy grew by 6.1
percent as of the first half of 2012.
“There seems to be indication then we could see some support
from business which could provide support to investment and of course better
consumption activities which could also lift growth in the near term,” she
explained.
A total of 1,576 businesses nationwide were polled with a
response rate of 75.1 percent. The survey was conducted from Oct. 1 to Nov. 15.
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