Philippine economy forecast to be among the top 30 by 2028
BusinessWorld Online
02 January 2014THE PHILIPPINES is expected to become one of the world’s 30 biggest economies by 2028, buoyed by improving macroeconomic fundamentals and a continued global reordering, a United Kingdom-based think tank said.
People walk among debris next to a ship washed ashore in the aftermath of super typhoon Yolanda at Anibong, Tacloban in this Nov. 11, 2013 photo. The storm, which killed over 6,100 poeple and caused some P36.7 billion in damage, is expected to weigh on near-term Philippine economic growth. -- AFP
“We forecast that the Philippines will rise gradually from 42nd position in 2012 to 28th in 2028,” the Centre for Economics and Business Research said in its World Economic League Table (WELT) report for 2013.
Released annually, the WELT identifies the world’s 30 biggest economies based on nominal gross domestic product (GDP). It also forecasts which countries will be in the top 30 in five, 10 and 15 years.
“This year’s report is updated to take account of the likely surplus of energy and falling oil and gas prices in the 2020s, weaker commodity prices than had previously been expected and the sell-off of some emerging market currencies in mid-2013,” CEBR said.
It noted that the Philippine economy was currently being weighed down by the aftermath of super typhoon Yolanda (international name: Haiyan), which devastated parts of the country last November.
The impact is expected to extend to this year, particularly in terms of agriculture output.
“But it (the Philippines) is expected to recover in 2014 and 2015. Meanwhile, the improved outlook for the US economy is important for the Philippines, which has much closer economic links with the US than other ASEAN economies,” CEBR said.
The country’s projected rise in the rankings, it noted, has to do with an expected reordering among economies.
For 2013 the US continued to best other nations in the WELT, followed by China, Japan, Germany, and France, respectively. Rounding out the top ten were the United Kingdom, Brazil, Russia, Italy, and Canada. Russia overtook Italy to gain 8th place, while Canada snatched 10th from India, which fell to 11th.
“Below the top 20 some of the changes are more dramatic -- Iran drops from 21st position to 30th as sanctions bite; South Africa drops from 28th out of the top 30 (to 33rd) as strikes, slow growth and a weakening currency affect its position,” the report noted.
CEBR predicts that by 2028, China will replace the US to become the world’s largest economy. India is likewise seen to overtake Japan to become the world’s third largest economy. Japan will fall to fourth, and Brazil, seventh in 2013, will climb up to fifth.
“The UK is the West’s second-best performing economy. Indeed it is the only major Western economy expected to move up the league table becoming the world’s 5th largest economy in 2018 by overtaking France. After that it slips back to 7th place in 2023 and 2028 as India and Brazil overtake,” CEBR said.
“But by 2028 the UK economy is forecast to be only 3% smaller than the German economy and is likely to overtake Germany to become the largest Western European economy around 2030.”
More emerging economies will start climbing up the ranks by 2018, it said, a trend seen to continue in the following ten years.
“By 2028 the league table is being reordered. China has moved to No. 1; India to No 3. Mexico is in the top 10 at No 9. Korea and Turkey are 11th and 12th and have overtaken France,” it said.
“As symbols of the new world order, Nigeria, Egypt, Iraq and the Philippines break into the top 30. All the latter group depend on maintaining or in some cases regaining political stability.”
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