...the next decade global economic driver

India And The Philippines Will Beat China Over The Next Decade


Panos Mourdoukoutas, Contributor
Forbes Magazine
31 August 2019

India and the Philippines will be the top drivers of global economic growth over the next decade, beating China.

That’s according to an Oxford Economics study published earlier this year, which ranks the top ten emerging market economies to dominate the global economy over the next ten years. In terms of economic growth, that is. China is ranking fourth on that list, behind Indonesia.

One of the reasons behind India’s and the Philippine’s lead on this list is a numbers game according to Louis Kuijs, author of the study.

“Basically, the story is the same for these two countries. They are both still relatively poor, meaning there is a lot of potential for catch up,” says Kuijs.

Indeed, India’s per capita GDP is close to one-fourth that of China’s, while the Philippines’  per capita GDP is close to one-third of China’s—see table.

Country                               GDP                            Per Capita GDP

India                                   $2726.32 billion          $2104.20
Philippines                         $330.91 billion            $3022.00
China                                 $13608.15 billion        $7755.00


Source: Tradingeconomics.com  8/30/19

Meanwhile, the two countries have yet to face “middle income trap” --  a situation where economic growth slows down as an emerging market economy reaches middle income -- and The Lewis point, a situation where an emerging market economy runs out of cheap labor. China is already past the two points.