...the PH new Moody's rating

Philippines keeps investment grade score from Moody's


ABS-CBN NEWS
11 October 2019

MANILA - Moody's Investor Service on Friday said it kept its Baa2 rating and with"stable" outlook for the Philippines due to its strong fiscal position and "limited vulnerability" to external risks.

The country's "high" economic strength, "moderate" institutional strength and fiscal strength, and "low" susceptibility to event risks determined the country's credit profile, Moody's said in a statement. 

The Baa rating, one notch above minimum investment grade, is subject to moderate credit risks, according to Moody's rating scale. 

The government's economic and fiscal reforms as well as its "effective monetary policy" contributed to the overall macroeconomic stability and sound financial system, Moody's said. 

"The stable outlook on the Philippines' rating incorporates our view that strong GDP growth relative to rating peers could accelerate even further," Moody's said. 

Economic growth momentum is expected to further recover due to a sound banking system and if higher infrastructure investment is achieved, the statement said.

Moody's estimates that the country's gross domestic product could grow 5.8 percent in 2019, slower than the government target of 6 to 7 percent due to the budget delay early this year.

A modest rebound is expected next year, with an estimated GDP growth of 6.2 percent as the government's catch-up spending "spills" over to 2020. 

Climate change risks, however, can have an impact on the country's sovereign profile due to climate-related disasters, the statement said.

• The World Bank on Thursday said the country's GDP could also grow 5.8 percent this year, missing the lower end of its target due to the budget delay and the public spending ban imposed before the mid-term elections in May.

...the Asia's most resilient economy

'Philippines resilient to external risks'

Zinnia B. dela Pena
Philippine Star
12 may 2015


MANILA - The Philippines is expected to continue to hold up well to external headwinds as it has enough fiscal space to counter any global risks, Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima said.

Purisima said the country remains one of the region’s most resilient to external shocks due to its sound fundamentals that compare well with many regions in the world.

“We have built ample buffers that strongly position the Philippines to weather changes in the external environment. We are less vulnerable to external risks, but we will never be complacent,” Purisima said.

Purisima issued the statement amid fears the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by June or 
September, its first rate hike since the financial crisis.

Countries that are still running large deficits are vulnerable to flight of capital if the US Fed raises rates sooner or more aggressively than expected. Some emerging markets are heavily reliant on foreign inflows to fund fiscal or current account deficits.

With higher US interest rates, corporations and banks that borrowed in dollars could face additional pressure if they don’t have matching revenues or assets.

Purisima said the Philippines has sustained current account surpluses that began in 2003 with foreign exchange reserves growing significantly on the back of steady remittance flows and a growing business process outsourcing industry.

Vulnerability to foreign exchange risk is tempered with the country’s heavy bias towards local currency. Interest payments have been locked at low rates with the country’s debt portfolio predominantly in fixed terms.

Apart from these, the ratio of the country’s external debt has dropped to 15 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) or 0.5 times the Philippines’ dollar reserves – one of the lowest levels in Asia.

Purisima noted that only four percent of external debt will be maturing within a year, reflecting an average residual maturity of over 11 years.

An improved export manufacturing sector has narrowed the trade deficit further easing balance of payment pressures.

...the Filipino strength

 

Down but not out... the stoical people of storm-hit Philippines

01OF 6

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There are faces you just never forget – and these are some of them.

 

BY CLAIRE MCNEILLY 

telegraph.co.uk

25 APRIL 2014

When Typhoon Haiyan struck the Philippines six months ago the images shocked the world and inspired a huge international aid effort.

Award-winning Belfast photographer Matt Mackey visited the area with Concern Worldwide shortly after the islands were devastated.

His pictures are now part of a major exhibition in Belfast's Waterfront Hall, capturing the moving stories of individuals whose lives were forever changed by the storm.

"The idea was to show the people of Northern Ireland where their money goes when they support humanitarian organisations such as Concern through their emergency appeals," said Matt (right).

"It constantly evolves in front of you as you talk to local people and find out their personal stories. That's how the pictures develop."

Matt visited three islands on his trip, taking over 15,000 photographs. He also spent time in Concepcion, where Concern is based.

He then faced the difficult task of trying to choose just 24 for the exhibition entitled: Faces Of The Philippines: 7,000 Islands, 1 Typhoon, 4 Lives.

Concern is still helping those whose lives were ripped apart when the typhoon struck and has so far reached over 110,000 people.

Peter Anderson, Northern Ireland director of Concern, said the exhibition is a testament to the people of the Philippines, who showed incredible resilience and determination to rebuild their lives.

...the PH growth punch

Philippines jabs for growth after Yolanda knockout

 

By Carmina Reyes,

ABS-CBN News

03/26/2014

 

 

MANILA – Like its boxing icon Manny Pacquiao, who was shockingly knocked out by an opponent but found redemption in his next fight, the Philippines should bounce back in 2014 after a deadly blow by typhoon “Yolanda” last year.

Three foreign institutions in separate reports said they expect the Philippines to maintain a strong growth rate this year, boosted by the government’s infrastructure projects and reconstruction program in the aftermath of the typhoon.

But for the Philippines to finally advance to another boxing division like Pacquiao, the Philippines must quicken its pace of project implementation.

“Our Philippines research highlights that the greatest single threat is disappointment with the administration due to slow pace of implementation,” said Australia’s Macquarie, which two years ago had set up with Philippines’ Government Service Insurance System (GSIS) a AUS$625-million fund to invest in infrastructure projects in the country.

Macquarie sees the Philippines maintaining a 6%-6.5% growth rate this year, while World Bank forecasts growth domestic product (GDP) growth rate at 6.6 percent.

DBS, Southeast Asia’s largest bank by assets, even raised its GDP growth forecast to 6.6% for 2014 from the previous estimate of 6.5%.

“The economy is largely unhurt from the devastating typhoon at the end of last year. If anything, the reconstruction efforts taking place in the first-half of 2014 will likely provide another boost to GDP growth momentum,” DBS economist Gundy Cahyadi said.

The country’s full-year GDP in 2013 grew 7.2%, higher than the government’s expectations of 6-7%, despite being struck by the one of the strongest typhoons to ever make landfall.

Construction of the 15-kilometer Metro Manila Skyway 3 project has started, but there are other transportation infrastructure that need to be implemented: the NLEX-SLEX connector road of the Metro Pacific group, and the Integrated Transport System (ITS) terminals.



World Bank country director Motoo Konishi said the $8 billion reconstruction program launched recently by the government will reduce the negative impact of typhoon Yolanda.

“The disruption to economic activity in the affected areas will pull down growth through lower consumption, but a speedy implementation of the Reconstruction Assistance on Yolanda (RAY) program would partially offset the decline in consumption and keep GDP growth strong at 6.6% in 2014 and 6.9% in 2015,” World Bank said.

Punches and headbutts

World Bank, however, warned that a slower global recovery and the end of quantitative easing in the US could release a torrent of punches to the economy.

Slower growth in high-income countries and in China would translate into lower demand for Philippine export products. China accounted for 12% of Philippine exports in 2012.

As to how America’s quantitative easing could impact the Philippines, here’s a quick recap: The US Federal Reserve began its asset buying program in November 2008, purchasing US Treasury notes and mortgage-backed securities, and issues credit to the banks' reserves to buy the bonds.

The purpose of this expansionary monetary policy is to lower interest rates and spur economic growth.

The program is now on its sixth year and since January, instead of buying $85 billion a month in bonds, as it has been doing since September 2012, the Fed has lowered its purchases to $75 billion in bonds each month.

The Fed is expected to gradually cut back on the bond purchases throughout this year so it can completely wind down its stimulus program. The rise in rates will likely pick up pace when the Fed finally raises its key overnight lending rate, which has been near zero since late 2008.

Last week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in a press conference following the first policy meeting that she chaired, said the Fed will probably end its bond-buying program next fall.

Kendrick Chua, World Bank senior economist for the Philippines, said the scaling back of quantitative easing in the US could result in higher borrowing costs in the Philippines.

This can impact on those who borrowed money to purchase houses or real estate assets. In case the interest rates rise sharply, some people may not be able to pay the amortizations and their properties may end up getting foreclosed.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is scheduled to hold a policy meeting March 27. Last week, BSP Governor Amando Tetangco told reporters an "early" and "gradual" adjustment in monetary policy stance rather than "discreet movements" would be less disruptive to businesses.

The BSP’s overnight rate has been at a record low of 3.5% since October 2012 when it was cut by 25 basis points.

Chua said that while businesses and households may be affected, the overall impact on the Philippines is expected to be manageable.

"The country continues to benefit from strong macroeconomic fundamentals, characterized by low and stable inflation, healthy external balances, and improving government finances. These strong fundamentals will continue to shield the economy," Chua said.

Going the distance: Tourism, Sciences

Will be the Philippines mirror Pacquiao, who started as a brawler, but later emerged as a skilled ring warrior?

To remain competitive, Macquarie said the Philippines must avoid or at least minimize the tendency of losing competitiveness in one segment before building competitiveness in other areas.

“The Philippines should improve competitiveness in a number of key agribusiness and metals/mining sub-sectors while maintaining and improving competitiveness in electronics,” Macquarie said.

“In addition to merchandising trade, the Philippines has in our view a significant untapped potential in services exports beyond BPO.”

In the context of IT-BPO (business process outsourcing), the industry continues to expand rapidly. IT-BPO revenues increased by 17% in 2013 and have reached $15.5 billion.

Although the growth rates are likely to taper-off, there is no doubt that the industry has multiple avenues of expansion.

The challenge is to continue diversifying away from voice and into faster areas of growth such as: back-office IT services; engineering & healthcare services; and higher value-added applications, such as animation, Macquarie said.

While the Philippines control almost 30% of the global voice BPO market, the country’s overall share of IT exports remains at around 1%, with clearly significant room for growth.

Fortunately, the current administration, which will be in power until June 2016, remains popular, according to Macquarie.

“Although net ratings are down somewhat, they remain considerably ahead of two other long-lasting administrations and there is an overall feeling of popular consensus for reform," Macquarie said.

 

...the PHL growth in the next decade

Phl seen growing 6.5-7.5% in next decade


             

By Kathleen A. Martin

The Philippine Star

February 10, 2014

 

 

UK firm warns of major setback in 2016 leadership change


MANILA, Philippines - The Philippine economy is expected to continue expanding between 6.5 and seven percent in the next decade but London-based Capital Economics warned that the change in leadership in 2016 could be a major setback for the country.

“Overall, we remain fairly upbeat on the Philippines and believe growth will average around 6.5 to seven percent over the next decade,” Gareth Leather, economist at Capital Economics, said in the latest Emerging Asia Economics Weekly.

“However, a note of caution is probably in order amid uncertainty over who will replace President (Benigno) Aquino whose term in office comes to an end in 2016,” he said.

Leather said that the current “reform-minded” government has opened doors for the economy to shore up investments and improve the business environment.

“Among the most important reforms have been a crackdown on corruption; new legislation to control population growth; public-private finance initiatives aimed at improving the country’s infrastructure; and a peace agreement with Islamic insurgent groups,” Leather said.

These reforms have allowed the country to move up rankings on the World Economic Forum and the Heritage Foundation’s surveys with regard to business environments and progress on implementing changes in the government, he added.

 

“The election of another reform-minded president would provide a major boost to the country’s prospects. However, there are clearly no guarantees this will be the case,” Leather said.

“Indeed, there is a danger that Mr. Aquino will be followed by a weak incompetent or corrupt leader who fails to build on, or even reverses, the progress that Aquino has made in his first few years as president,” he said.

The Philippine economy expanded by 7.2 percent last year, surpassing market and government expectations.

The country also boasts of its investment grade ratings received from global debt watchers Standard & Poor’s, Fitch Ratings, and Moody’s Investors Service last year.

Aside from the uncertainty of whether winners of the 2016 presidential elections would sustain reforms, Leather said the country still enjoys a “reduced risk of an external crisis.”

The country’s balance of payments surplus amounted to $5.085 billion last year. While gross international reserves amounted to $78.939 billion in January.

“The large current account surplus and the resulting lack of dependence on foreign financing limits the country’s vulnerability to sudden capital outflows,” Leather said.

“It has been notable that the Philippines has been relatively unscathed by market turbulence of the last year. That has allowed the central bank to keep interest rates low to support growth, which stands in stark contrast to India and Indonesia, where central banks have been forced into raising rates,” he said.

Another positive factor for the Philippine economy is its improving fiscal position, the economist said.

The government debt to gross domestic product ratio has now gone down to less than 40 percent from a peak of under 70 percent in 2003, an indicator that the possibility of a sovereign debt crisis is very small, Leather said.

He added “with less money now being spent on debt repayment, the government has more resources to spend on infrastructure, education and healthcare, which can raise productivity and drive long-run growth.”

The country’s healthy demographics can also provide a boost to long-term growth, a stark contrast to other economies with ageing population.

“Provided jobs can be found for this people, a rapid increase in the working age population can boost growth by increasing the productive potential of the economy,” Leather said.

 

...the Aquinomics

Philippines’ Aquino Races the World’s Fastest Economies

 

By William Mellor & Clarissa Batino             

Dec 4, 2013

Bloomberg Markets Magazine

 

 

Manila is the capital of a country blessed by an economic resurgence -- and yet afflicted still by misery. Photograph: Virgile Simon Bertrand/Bloomberg Markets

 

 

Just after midnight one sultry Friday in August 1987, Manila became a battleground as rebel troops attempted a coup against Philippine President Corazon Aquino. Two blocks from the besieged presidential palace, insurgents opened fire on a car carrying Aquino’s only son, a bespectacled and soft-spoken 27-year-old junior insurance executive nicknamed Noynoy.

4:24

 

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Timothy Riddell, the Singapore-based head of Asian global markets research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., talks about the region's economies and markets. He speaks with Mia Saini on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)

President Benigno S. Aquino III

The leader of the Philippines, President Benigno S. Aquino III, has a strong economy to build on as he faces a new challenge: reconstructing a nation battered by Super Typhoon Haiyan. Photograph: Steve Tirona

 

In the Storm's Wake

A resident sells fruits and vegetables next to a public market destroyed by Typhoon Haiyan. Photograph: Ted Aljibe/AFP/Getty Images

 

Bonifacio Global City

Bonifacio Global City, a major new building development, rises on the edge of Manila. Photograph: Virgile Simon Bertrand/Bloomberg Markets

 

 

By the time soldiers still loyal to the president fought their way to the scene, three of Noynoy’s four bodyguards lay dead. Shot five times, the intended target improbably survived, albeit with a bullet in the neck that he still carries today, Bloomberg Markets magazine will report in its January issue.

“I’m living a second life,” says Noynoy Aquino, now himself the president of this Southeast Asian nation of almost 100 million people. “I was saved for a certain purpose and will not squander that opportunity.”

So far, Benigno S. Aquino III -- his full name -- has largely proved true to his word and given the Philippines a second life of its own in the process. Since moving into an official residence known as the House of Dreams, following his election victory in June 2010, Aquino, 53, has overseen a national resurgence beyond the reveries of most investors.

Bankrupted in the 1980s by dictator Ferdinand Marcos, the Philippines lagged far behind rival Asian economies, averaging just 3 percent annual growth from 1984 to 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Under Aquino, that figure has more than doubled. And in the first half of 2013, output surged at a 7.65 percent annual pace, surpassing that of China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy, before easing back to 7 percent in the third quarter.

Super Typhoon

In the aftermath of Super Typhoon Haiyan, Aquino must now try to sustain that growth while rebuilding whole swaths of his country and reinforcing its defenses against future, similar disasters. The tropical storm, which struck on Nov. 8, may have caused losses of as much as between $10 and $15 billion, according to early estimates.

Still, reconstruction is within Aquino’s reach, JPMorgan said in a November 22 report. The bank forecast that while the typhoon may cut full-year 2013 GDP growth to 6.9 percent from its earlier estimate of 7.1 percent, the nationwide impact won’t be long-lasting and the 2014 estimates should rise to 6 percent from 5.6 percent due to the boost from rebuilding.

The history of comparable catastrophes shows that reconstruction can be a boost for developing nations.

In 2012, Thailand’s economy rebounded 7.1 percent, following floods that swamped thousands of factories and a vast strip of agricultural land the previous year. In 2005, the Indonesian economy grew to 5.6 percent from 5 percent the year before, when a tsunami claimed about 200,000 lives and devastated Aceh province.

Best Performer

Investors in the Philippines weren’t unduly scared off by Haiyan, with the Philippines Stock Exchange Index falling 2.8 percent since Nov. 8 when Haiyan hit the Philippines.

From the time Aquino took office, the index has soared 86 percent, becoming the world’s best performer out of 45 emerging and developed markets tracked by MSCI indexes. The nation’s debt, meanwhile, has been raised to investment grade by Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s.

Now, investors are awaiting full-year GDP figures to see by how much the typhoon dented the country’s China-challenging growth rate.

Aquino has achieved this transformation by pruning a record $7 billion budget deficit in 2010 to $2.3 billion in the first nine months of 2013, declaring war on rampant corruption, announcing plans to more than double state spending on public works to $19 billion -- or about 5 percent of GDP -- by 2016, and exploiting Filipinos’ English-language skills to promote industries as diverse as casinos and call centers.

Filipinos Overseas

Foreign income from those call centers, together with remittances from 10.5 million Filipinos who work overseas, even helped Aquino defy the 2013 rout in other emerging markets -- especially those such as India with current-account deficits -- as investors anticipate an end to U.S. monetary easing.

The Philippines, by contrast, boasts a current-account surplus of more than 4 percent of GDP and should remain well placed to deal with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s eventual tapering, according to the International Monetary Fund.

That surplus has helped prop up the currency, the peso. Its 6.5 percent decline against the dollar in the 12 months ended on Dec. 3 is only a little more than half that of the Indian rupee. And although the stock market has fallen back from its May 15 record high, it was still up 9 percent during the same one-year period compared with less than 1 percent in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

Rolls-Royce

During that time frame, Philippine bonds have returned 8.7 percent, the best performance among 10 local-currency Asian bond markets tracked by HSBC Holdings Plc.

Such is the wealth being generated in at least the upper echelons of Philippine society that Bayerische Motoren Werke AG in September opened its first Rolls-Royce showroom in Manila.

“The Philippines for decades was a lost country,” says Ruchir Sharma, New York–based head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management who oversees $25 billion, including Philippine shares. “Now, it could end up being among the fastest growing in the world in 2013. It comes from having the right leader at the right time.”

Maintaining such investor enthusiasm is more problematic. The stock market surge since Aquino took office now makes the Philippines the world’s second most expensive emerging market after Mexico, with a 12-month forward price-earnings ratio of 16.9 compared with 7.8 for Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

‘Too Expensive’

Investor Mark Mobius says he’s not buying at those prices.

“It’s just too expensive,” says Singapore-based Mobius, who oversees $53 billion at San Mateo, California–based Templeton Emerging Markets Group. “There’s a shortage of good companies. They need more IPOs.”

That isn’t the only challenge facing the Philippines. The nation is locked in a territorial dispute with its giant neighbor, China, over the potentially oil-rich Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, while at home it is struggling to pacify a four-decade-old Muslim insurgency in southern Mindanao.

Even as the economy soars, almost 20 percent of the population continues to live on less than $1.20 a day -- the poorest in squalid slums or sometimes in cemeteries, where they squat in the family tombs of the wealthy.

Calamitous Storm

More than 10 million people were affected by November’s typhoon. An unemployment rate of 7.3 percent is Asia’s second highest, after India. Foreign direct investment is the lowest in Southeast Asia -- just $2.8 billion in 2012 compared with $8.6 billion for Thailand. The $250 billion economy remains dependent on the $21 billion sent home annually by Filipinos working overseas.

While Haiyan was an exceptionally calamitous storm, natural disasters are far from rare in the Philippines, costing the nation an average of $1.6 billion a year, according to the Asian Development Bank.

Aquino’s battle against graft perhaps best reflects the enormity of his task. During his 2010 election campaign, he argued that it was impossible to beat poverty without first eradicating corruption.

Soon after being elected, he set about doing that by sacking Chief Justice Renato Corona for failing to disclose his assets. Aquino also arrested Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, his immediate predecessor, on corruption charges that have yet to come to court. Both Corona and Macapagal-Arroyo deny wrongdoing.

Crusading Commissioner

Aquino also hired a crusading female tax commissioner, Kim Henares, 53, who has so incensed some of her targets that she has taken to carrying a pistol for self-defense.

Aquino’s efforts appear to have borne some fruit. His country’s ranking in Transparency International’s 2013 Corruption Perceptions Index, announced on Dec. 3, improved 11 places to 94th out of 177 countries.

Still, in recent months, these victories have been clouded by the disclosure that pork-barreling politicians have been misusing a $568 million poverty-reduction fund that they have been allowed to access at their own discretion. The scandal has wounded Aquino: His net satisfaction rating fell 15 points to plus-49 in September, according to polling firm Social Weather Stations.

For Aquino himself, time is running short. He is constitutionally barred from running for a second six-year term, and June will mark his fourth anniversary in office.

“You will quickly see him moving toward lame-duck status,” says Frederic Neumann, Hong Kong–based co-head of Asian economics at HSBC. “That means the reforms in which he is taking on vested interests could fall by the wayside.”

Defying Expectations

Looking relaxed in a traditional barong tagalog -- a translucent lightweight formal shirt -- Aquino said in a May interview in the presidential compound that he can emerge victorious. He has defied expectations before. A bachelor with a weakness for cigarettes and computer games, he spent much of his life in the shadow of his parents, the two most-revered figures in the nation’s struggle for democracy.

His father, Benigno Aquino Jr. -- nicknamed Ninoy -- was a charismatic opposition leader and senator jailed for eight years by Marcos before being allowed to travel to the U.S. for heart surgery in 1980. On his return to Manila in 1983, Ninoy Aquino was led off the plane by Marcos’s troops and shot dead by soldiers on the tarmac of the airport that now bears his name.

Marcos’s widow, Imelda, said in an interview with Bloomberg Markets in June that neither she nor her husband ordered the assassination.

People Power

However, the killing was the catalyst for a fragmented opposition to unite behind the widowed Corazon, who challenged Marcos and was swept into the presidency in a 1986 People Power uprising. The devoutly Catholic former housewife then withstood at least six coup plots to complete her full term and hand over power to an elected successor, Fidel Ramos.

By contrast, Noynoy had an uninspiring track record in business and politics. After graduating with a bachelor’s degree in economics from Ateneo de Manila University in 1981, he worked in various management positions in the family insurance company, Intra-Strata Assurance Corp., and on the Aquinos’ 6,400-hectare (15,800-acre) sugar plantation, Hacienda Luisita.

In 1998, standing for the centrist Liberal Party, he was elected to the House of Representatives and served there for nine years before voters sent him to the Senate in 2007.

Aquino wasn’t even originally supposed to be the Liberal candidate in the last presidential election. The chosen contender was Mar Roxas, a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and a former investment banker at New York–based Allen & Co.

‘Definitely Surprised’

Then, in August 2009, nine months before the poll, the revered Corazon Aquino died, sparking a wave of emotion among Filipinos, 300,000 of whom turned out for her funeral. Petitions circulated urging her son to run for president, and a month later Roxas stood down in favor of Aquino, who won the presidency by more than 5 million votes.

Filipinos were lucky that Aquino rose to the challenge, says Edwin Gutierrez, a London-based Filipino-American portfolio manager with Aberdeen Asset Management Plc.

“He’s definitely surprised on the upside,” says Gutierrez, who helps manage $10 billion in emerging-markets debt.

Filipinos may not be so fortunate with their next president, given their preference for personality rather than party-driven politics, Gutierrez says.

The Marcos family, for instance, still wields clout. Ferdinand Marcos Jr., 56, the dictator’s son, won a Senate seat in May and confirmed in an interview that he is considering a bid for the presidency.

Aquino brushes aside fears about who will succeed him.

“I didn’t have any ambition to be president,” he says. “It was fate. The people found me. I am sure they will be able to find another one out of 95 million.”

Leaving the choice to fate sounds risky in a country that has been so let down by leaders in the past. If Aquino is to make the most of his second life, he may have to play an active role in persuading Filipinos to elect someone who can build on his legacy.



 

...the brotherhood of man

This Time We Must All Be Filipino 




Stephen P. Groff
The Huffington Post

11/29/2013 

 

 

Just three weeks ago, millions of Filipinos felt the catastrophic strength of Super Typhoon Haiyan. What can I write in its aftermath that could help ease their agony? What can I possibly say that might lighten their load? Following my visit to Tacloban and surrounding areas, I know that there are no words that will alleviate their suffering; no literary unction that will sooth their pain. I can't pretend to understand the emptiness felt by someone who has lost a child, a parent or a loved one to this disaster by making false comparisons to disappointments I have experienced. Dime-store analogies will never do justice to the enormity of this loss. The only thing I can say is that I know the Philippines can overcome this tragedy and will be stronger for the experience.

My life is inextricably entwined with this country. In many ways, I owe my family and my career to the Philippines. I first came here over twenty-five years ago as a Peace Corps volunteer. Newly graduated from college, I was ready to impart all of my "wisdom" to a community of artisanal fishermen, only to find that I had much more to learn from them than they from me. This was my first introduction to the Filipino spirit and to the notion of "bayanihan". People who had very little didn't think twice about sharing it. The community always came together to help someone with a sick family member, to support someone else whose boat was destroyed by a storm or to repair communal dikes in the rice fields.

The Philippines has been my home for much of the time since. My wife and our two amazing children are Filipino. While aware of the challenges faced by a burgeoning middle-income country, we marvel at the beauty of this place and still spend many weekends in the village where I first lived as a volunteer. I may not look it but, deep inside, my heart is here -- Pilipino ang puso ko.

We have all seen how resilient this country is. Through war, typhoons, volcanoes, and earthquakes, the Filipino perseveres with a smile on his face and wonders if you'd like to eat, ready to share whatever she has. This is what will allow the country to overcome this tragedy -- the optimism and generosity of its people. This time though, we must all be Filipino. We must all share in that optimism and generosity.

In responding to this tragedy, the Philippines, paraphrasing Abraham Lincoln, must allow itself to be influenced by the better angels of its nature -- bayanihan, pakikipagtulungan, mapagpatawad and kaloob.

The rest of the world must accept the lessons from previous tragedies that we too often have stubbornly resisted. In a recent Washington Post piece, Vijaya Ramachandran and Owen Barder urge the world to "Let's help the Philippines -- but not like we helped Haiti".

 They acknowledge that the immediate aftermath of such disasters can bring out the best in the global community. But much remains to be learned from our response to disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, particularly around transparency and accountability. The Government of the Philippines has made a strong push in this direction with the launch of FAiTH (the Foreign Aid Transparency Hub), an online portal of information on aid received in response to Yolanda.

Past experience shows that while responding to initial needs is often chaotic, study after study demonstrates that failing to support a strong national presence on the ground undermines the government's ability to lead the reconstruction effort, long after emergency responders have departed. This begins with the relief phase being anchored by strong national coordination of both domestic and international efforts. In short, the entire international community -- public, private and civil society -- must support the government's efforts to coordinate all phases of the response.

And what about concerned citizens? In an excellent piece in Slate, humanitarian worker Jessica Alexander urges the civically minded to "donate money -- not teddy bears, not old shoes, not breast milk." Her basic premise is that we need to curb our instinct to donate things, and instead donate money to those organizations that can best determine what things are necessary on the ground. Not only does money travel faster and cost less to move, there is less chance that it will end up unused.

Lastly, we should use the momentum created by this crisis to inject momentum into the fight against climate change. Naderev Saño, the chief representative of the Philippines at the Warsaw Climate Change Conference, pled with delegates at COP 19 on November 11 to "stop this madness". There is significant scientific evidence that the worst storms are getting stronger and that storm surges are compounded by sea level rise. The global community should use this event as an impetus for concrete, immediate action to address climate change.

For its part, my institution -- the Asian Development Bank -- is committed to supporting the country in response, recovery and reconstruction. We have already released a $3 million grant and will soon be releasing another $20 million grant and a $500 million loan to support reconstruction. While these funds will help, they represent only a fraction of our commitment to the Philippines. Two-thirds of our staff -- nearly 2,000 people -- are Filipino, many with a direct connection to this tragedy. The remainder are expatriates who have chosen Manila as a second home. Alongside our neighbors, thousands of us are contributing in a personal capacity to the ongoing efforts in the Visayas. We will do whatever is necessary to help get these communities back on their feet.

Now is not the time to point fingers or assess blame. Now is the time to work together -- to encourage global bayanihan -- to get assistance to those that really need it, and to do that in the context of understanding past failures and successes. Like my Filipino friends, I am an optimist at heart, and it is hard not to see a better future in the smiles I saw on the children of Leyte and Samar, children who have experienced more tragedy in their young lives than most of us do in a lifetime. The Filipino spirit is stronger than this event -- not only is it "waterproof", it is pessimist-proof as well.

Stephen P. Groff is the Asian Development Bank's Vice-President for East Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific. This article first appeared in the Philippine Daily Inquirer and in Embassy Magazine.

...the PH Q3 economic growth

PHL economy grows 7% in Q3, the fastest in Southeast Asia, says NSCB

By SIEGFRID O. ALEGADO,

GMA News

November 28, 2013

 

 

The economy remained robust, growing at the fastest pace in Southeast Asia in the third quarter of the year on the back of increased investments, sustained government and consumer spending, and brisker trade, the National Statistical Coordination Board reported Thursday.

At a press briefing, NSCB Secretary General Jose Ramon Albert said output as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7 percent in the third quarter, down from the 7.6 percent in the second quarter and 7.3 percent in July to September of last year.

Albert said the results in July to September pulled the GDP growth to 7.4 percent in the first nine months of the year, or above government's 6 to 7 percent target for the year.

At the same briefing, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the country remains one of the brightest spots in region and will continue to do so for the rest of the year.

“We remain to be the fastest growing economy in the major economies of Southeast Asia... We are second to China,” said Balisacan, who is also National Economic and Development Authority director general, noting that China grew by 7.8 percent in the third quarter.

Despite the destruction wreaked by Typhoon Yolanda, the economic chief noted there is a strong possibility that the Philippines would meet its output goal for 2013, considering that all it takes would be 2.5 percent to 5.3 percent in growth in the fourth quarter for the Philippines to meet its output goal for 2013.

Eduardo Francisco, BDO Capital and Investment Corp. president, said in a text message, the latest GDP data "shows we have momentum and why investors should remain bullish on the Philippines.

"Relief efforts for Yolanda will continue and a lot of rebuilding in the form of investments will take place," he added.

Government officials, including Balisacan, earlier said the damage to crops, livestock, and infrastructure in the Visayas could shave nearly one percentage point from the full-year GDP.

“We still expect GDP for the full-year would come close to 7 percent,” Balisacan said.

“It's true that the destruction of physical, particularly private, capital is quite massive. The impact on the GDP is quite substantial [in the fourth quarter], but we have been growing so fast,” said Balisacan.

'Real economy has strong legs'

"The sustained expansions in investment spending and the manufacturing sub-sector continue to provide the needed boost to GDP growth," Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. said in a research note sent after the growth numbers were released.

In a separate note, Prakriti Sofat, Singapore-based economist at Barclays Plc., said the disruption" caused by Typhoon Yolanda pose downside risks to fourth quarter GDP, "but the impact should be manageable.

"While we expect disruption from the typhoon to impact growth in the fourth quarter, we think first half 2014 growth will a get a boost from reconstruction," she added.

The latest GDP numbers are on a par with the 7 percent median forecast in a GMA News Online poll of economists.

“On the demand side, growth in the third quarter came from increased investments in fixed capital, reinforced by consumer and government spending, and the robust external trade,” NSCB’s Albert noted.

In terms of industry, manufacturing, and construction contributed much of the output in the third quarter, Albert said.

In a separate text message, Philippine Stock Exchange Inc. president Hans Sicat said the data is "encouraging news," placing the Philippines second to China in terms of economic growth in Asia.

"It's a positive signal that the real economy has strong legs, and should bolster the fundamentals that analysts and investors look for to participate in the capital market," he said.

The third quarter growth numbers were within expectations, Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry chairman Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr. said in a phone interview.

 

"Slower growth was expected in the third quarter, but seven percent is still good," he said. "For the fourth quarter, the calamities could even spur expansion due to relief efforts, rebuilding."

 

On October 15, Central Visayas was rocked by a magnitude 7.2 earthquake, comparable to the strength of 32 atomic bombs. Typhoon Yolanda, with sustained winds of up to 315 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 378 kph, barreled through Central Philippines on November 8, flattening towns and cities and affecting millions of Filipinos.

 

"Economists are projecting a dip in growth because of Yolanda... [but] the third quarter numbers will help our average for the year to still be good," BDO Capital's Francisco said. – With Danessa Rivera/VS, GMA News

 

 

...the resilient economy (IMF)

IMF says PH can weather market volatility

 

by Kathleen A. Martin,

ABS-CBNnews.com

06/20/2013

 

 

 

MANILA -- The Philippines can endure market volatility with its current robust economic growth and strong fundamentals, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

 

Shanaka Peiris, IMF Representative to the Philippines, made the comment as the Philippine stock market recorded losses and the peso weakend on Thursday morning, following a US Federal Reserve announcement that it will reduce stimulus due to an improving US economy.

"The Philippine condition is very strong, reserves are very high and that is the first line of defense... you can smooth down the volatility," Peiris told reporters on Thursday.

Peiris noted that "markets are markets, they're supposed to react."

Us Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday (early Thursday in Manila) said the US central bank will decrease bond purchases amid an improving US economy.

His announcements resulted in sell-offs in Asian markets, including the Philippines', and weakening in regional currencies against the greenback.

"It's a gradual tapering off so it's kind of what the market was expecting...It's very gradual pull out so there's nothing to worry about," said.

Earlier on Thursday, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance said market and peso's volatility following the US Fed's comment was expected, allaying fears such may destabilize the current strong economy.

"Such expectation should recognize that the US Fed is gunning for a gradual, calibrated reduction of monetary stimulus," BSP Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo said in a text message to reporters. "Thus, economies and markets should take advantage of the space to do the required rebalancing and appropriate adjustment."

...the modern hero

Fil-Am hero in Santa Monica shooting

 

By Steve Angeles,

ABS-CBN North America Bureau

06/12/2013

 

 

SANTA MONICA, California - With a memorial standing at the school entrance and library, classes resumed at Santa Monica City college just days after gunman John Zawahri killed five people in the surrounding area.

Thousands gathered at the school, joining the families of the victims in prayer.

Filipino American Marcel Kahn, the library worker who helped shelter eight other people as the gunman fired his way into the library, is still shaken up by the events.

"Honestly, it just saddens me that this happened, this whole thing happened. Really unexpected," he said.

News of the 22-year-old Filipino’s heroism went viral online after the Los Angeles Times snapped a picture of him.

"I only did what I could do and that was to follow my instinct. When that situation happens, you don’t know what you're going to do," he recalled.

Six people, including the gunman, died in what has been described as a 13-minute rampage, which started when Zawahri killed his father and brother and set their house on fire.

 

...the PH growth forecast (World Bank)

WB sees PH growth at more than 6% through 2015

 

by Cathy Rose A. Garcia

ABS-CBNnews.com

01/16/2013

 

 

MANILA, Philippines - The Philippine economy is expected to continue growing by more than 6% in the next three years, according to a World Bank report.

 

In its "Global Economic Prospects 2013" report released on Wednesday, the World Bank said it projects a 6.2% growth for the Philippines in 2013; 6.4% in 2014 and 6.3% in 2015. This despite continuing concerns about the global economy's vulnerability to the risks from the euro zone crisis and fiscal policy in the United States.

The World Bank estimated the Philippines grew by 6% in 2012.

For the East Asia and the Pacific region, the World Bank sees growth at 7.9% this year, reflecting firmer growth in China to 8.4%. This is an improvement from the region's 7.5% growth in 2012.

"Improved global financial conditions, a gradual pickup of growth in high-income countries and a return to more normal global trade growth are expected to support a gradual strengthening of output in East Asia and the Pacific between 2013 and 2015," the report said.

The report also noted that "accommodative monetary policy" and and low inflation in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines is also a factor.

Major ASEAN countries, including the Philippines, are expected to continue their strong economic growth.

"Growth in this country group is expected to increase to 5.9% in 2015, as Indonesia continues to grow rapidly (at around 6.6%) and growth remains robust in Malaysia (around 5%), Thailand (4.5%) and the Philippines as well (around 6%)," it said.

Possible impact of US fiscal impasse

The World Bank cut its outlook for world growth this year. It estimates global gross domestic product will go up 2.4% this year, from 2.3% in 2012.

World Bank Group president Jim Yong Kim said the global economic recovery remains fragile and uncertain, which clouds the prospects for a return to robust growth.

"Developing countries have remained remarkably resilient thus far. But we can't wait for a return to growth in the high-income countries, so we have to continue to support developing countries in making investments in infrastructure, in health, in education. This will set the stage for the stronger growth that we know that they can achieve in the future."

The growth prospects for the East Asia and Pacific region in 2013 remain vulnerable to the continuation of the euro zone crisis and the fiscal impasse in the United States.

The World Bank estimates a deepening euro zone crisis could cut East Asia and Pacific's regional GDP by 1%. The impact of the US' failure to resolve its fiscal problems could mean a 1.1% cut in East Asia and Pacific's GDP in 2013.

"Among the EAP developing economies China, Thailand and Indonesia are projected to be most affected by a growth slowdown in high income countries (about 1-1.2% cut in GDP in both 2013 and 2014 relative to the baseline) followed by Vietnam and Malaysia (about 0.8-0.7% cut in the GDP relative to the baseline) due to reduced import demand in high- income countries, much tighter international capital conditions and increased pre-cautionary savings within the region," the World Bank said.