Philippine Opportunities: BRICS, Mini-BRICS
Empowering the Filipino People
By FORMER PHILIPPINE PRESIDENT FIDEL V. RAMOS
May 28, 2011
MANILA, Philippines — “These large emerging economies (BRICS) are followed by ‘mini-BRICS’ including Indonesia, the Philippines, Egypt, Turkey, Vietnam and Nigeria...” — China Daily (13 April)
On China President Hu Jintao’s invitation, leaders of the world’s five top emerging economies gathered in Sanya, Hainan, in mid-April to improve their policy coordination, economic partnership, and overall performance to gain a bigger clout in global growth and collective political power. This was the third formal confab of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, with South Africa included for the first time.
Aggressive leadership
Many analysts questioned the choice of SA as BRIC member, asking why not Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey instead? Some of us concerned “family elders” who closely follow national, regional, and global developments, also ask why not the Philippines which is already identified as a “mini-BRIC?”
Did SA President Jacob Zuma placidly wait for China’s blessings to be voted into membership? No, Zuma (who assumed office in 2010 like P-Noy), went for it aggressively and single-mindedly.
According to expert Ron Rowland of moneyandmarkets.com (January 2011), President Zuma relentlessly moved to join the BRIC Club. He made official visits to the member-nations and told anyone who would listen how Africa, and SA in particular, was ready to take on a bigger role.
“The fact that the invitation came from President Hu is important, as he informed Zuma in writing in December 2010 of the BRIC members’ decision to invite SA into their group. In recent years, the Chinese have made big efforts toward developing Africa’s natural resources. In turn, South Africa has forged a leadership position for itself and, equally significant, has played the role of ‘representative’ of Africa in general,” Rowland reported.
The three-day BRIC Summit focused mainly on economic issues, notably reform in the international monetary system, commodity price fluctuation, climate change, and sustainable development, according to China’s Foreign Ministry. The principals present were Brazil President Dilma Rouseff, Russia President Dmitry Medvedev, India PM Manmohan Singh, SA President Zuma, and host President Hu.
Subsequently, the BRICS leaders joined the 2011 Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference which President Hu also keynoted on 15 April.
Turmoils in the Middle East/North Africa
As they met amid MENA turbulence that has slowed down economic recovery, particularly in the EU and US, these leaders pledged to work for peace and prosperity.
“As we enter the next decade, we need to consider how human society will be able to ensure peace and shared prosperity,” Hu told BRICS leaders last 14 April. “The economic imbalance between the North and South remains prominent and the root causes of the global financial crisis have to be resolved with everyone’s cooperation,” he added.
“We share the principle that the use of force should be avoided,” the five leaders said in their joint Declaration in Sanya, while expressing serious concern over instabilities in other oil-producing countries.
Four BRICS countries abstained from the UN Security Council resolution establishing no-fly zones over Libya and authorizing “all necessary measures to protect civilians,” thus opening the door to airstrikes. South Africa was the only BRICS nation to favor the UNSC resolution and, to its credit, became the leading mediator for a Libyan cease-fire.
BRICS bargaining power
Recognizing BRICS’ increasingly important role in the world, analysts predict it would remain a major engine of global growth for years to come.
The bargaining power of emerging economies is expected to expand and also boost developed-developing countries’ cooperation. The combined GDP of BRICS nations accounted for 18 percent of the 2010 global total. But, by 2030, according to the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, this will grow to a staggering 47 percent.
In 2000, the four countries in BRIC (along with Indonesia), contributed just 18 percent of global GDP, while industrialized nations contributed 65 percent. By 2010, BRIC countries provided 27 percent of world GDP, while the rich countries’ share shrunk to 56 percent.
Experts say BRICS’ global impact lies in its being a bridge between developed and developing countries (North-South), with growing demand in the latter requiring capital and technology from the former.
“Consequently, the expanding markets in the BRICS countries will boost trade among themselves, and increase exports of Africa, Latin America, and ASEAN,” according to Zheng Xinli of China Center for International Economic Exchanges. This cooperation will also promote economic recovery in developed countries, added Zheng.
The IMF estimates China and India will grow at annual average rates of 9.0 percent between 2011 and 2015, with Russia and Brazil by 4.5 percent annually – meaning, global development will increasingly rely on emerging economies.
Growing middle class
Between 2000 and 2010, BRICS’ GDP grew by an incredible 92 percent, compared to global GDP growth of just 32 percent, with industrialized economies attaining a modest 15 percent.
Between 2011 and 2015, says the IMF, emerging economies – particularly the BRICS – will account for half of global demand. This means larger middle-class sectors with higher incomes.
“BRICS will continue to drive the world’s economic engine as they have huge potentials and middle-classes with growing appetites,” reported the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.
But, experts also warned of challenges to the smooth development of emerging economies, particularly because of unresolved MENA internal conflicts, and surging prices of oil, food, and minerals.
BRICS is still a loosely connected economic forum, with uncoordinated positions on major world issues. To get BRICS to play a bigger and more unified role, it needs more institutionalization, say Chinese analysts.
Highlights of the Sanya Declaration
In Sanya, BRICS countries agreed to work closely to evolve strategies for the future. This would insure cooperation not only in energy, food security, natural resources, and climate change, but especially global governance and trade/investment facilitation – with these highlights:
International monetary system – The governing structure of international institutions should reflect changes in the world economy and increase the representation of emerging economies/developing countries.
Discussion of SDRs – Special Drawing Rights in the monetary system, including the SDR’s basket of currencies, should be discussed and rationalized.
Greater supervision – Further international regulatory oversight and supervision are necessary to strengthen policy coordination and promote sound development of financial markets/banking systems.
Expanding capacities – The international community should increase production capacities, strengthen producer-consumer dialogues on supply and demand, while increasing support to developing countries
Regional turbulence – The turmoils in MENA and West African regions should be resolved by avoiding the use of force.
UN reforms – Comprehensive UN reforms, including its Security Council, are needed to make it “more effective, efficient and representative.”
Missed opportunities for the Philippines
Unlike in slow-paced Philippines – which is characterized by interminable public policy debates, prolonged decision-making, and Church-State bickering – the BRICS and other future BRICS are off and running fast.
Essential to maintaining their wide-ranging cooperation is for BRICS countries to have a stake in each other’s economy – especially in increasing people-to-people linkages and technology transfer.
In a report to President Aquino III last month after returning from China where he participated in the 2011 Boao Forum and attended the BRICS closing ceremony at Sanya, FVR recommended that the Philippines advocate/organize an ASEAN-BRIC initiative, given that experts have earmarked Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines as “mini-BRICS.”
When P-Noy was in Indonesia only two weeks ago, wasn’t it a sadly missed opportunity for Southeast Asia when ASEAN leaders frittered away their attention on the Thai-Cambodia border-temple conflict, instead of working to achieve a larger global role for ASEAN? As a socio-economic community expected to be integrated by 2015 (within P-Noy’s time) with 600 million people as common market and production team, ASEAN should be a formidable competitor on the world stage.
Another opening that President Aquino III may have failed to exploit was the candid discussion of the Spratlys controversy with visiting US top-brass instead of just playing “pa-pogi” (looking good) onboard the super-carrier USS Carl Vinson ten days ago.
Philippine leverage
That the Philippines uncovered and aborted the al-Qaeda plots engineered by Osama Bin Laden and protégé Ramzi Yousef to assassinate President Bill Clinton and Pope John Paul (in Manila before 9/11) would have been a good opening to start “no-holds-barred” discussions with US officials on security concerns and terrorism threats while our leaders were visiting Osama’s “last funeral carriage.”
With China, isn’t the strategic geo-political position of the Philippines astride the South China Sea and Pacific Ocean enough leverage to raise our value as an effective gateway to the vast East Asian markets, especially for services and essential food, minerals, and oil/gas??
For the Philippines and ASEAN, aren’t these advantages enough to strive for BRICS status?
Kaya ba natin ito?
T.V. Carpio in Spiderman, Turn Off The Dark. T.V. started her career as a back-up singer for her mom (Chinese-Filipina singer Teresa Carpio who made waves in Hong Kong in the 70s singing English covers and Cantopop -Cantonese songs with simple rhythm and melodies) and had a stellar role in the Across The Universe where she sang a slow rendition of the Beatles song I Wanna Hold Your Hand.
Jose Llana in Wonderland Having played mostly Asian roles since he started on Broadway in 1996 (Lun Tha (Burmese) in King and I, Wang Ta (Chinese) in Flower Drum Song with Lea Salonga, Chip Tolentino (Filipino) in 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee), he still gets to infuse a lot of his ethnicity in the Latin cat role. In 2003, Jose flew to Manila to fulfil his dream of performing at the CCP and to record a solo album under Viva Records. He is also one of the founding members of the Asian-Americans on Broadway.
