PHL economy to expand 7% in 2012 –FMIC and UA&P
A wave of economic data in the last five months showed that Philippine output as measured by gross domestic product would likely grow 6 percent to 7 percent, First Metro Investment Corp. (FMIC) and the University of Asia & the Pacific (UA&P) reported Tuesday.
UA&P decided to upgrade its Philippine GDP forecast from 5 percent to 6 percent “due to strong infrastructure and consumer spending," economist Victor Abola told reporters in a press briefing.
"Government expenditure is expected to further escalate and solid consumer spending to persist," FMIC and UA&P said in the briefing.
In their Market Call report released Tuesday, FMIC and UA&P said the peso may "mildly depreciate in the succeeding months to around P42.70 to P43.70 per dollar" because of the euro zone debt crisis.
With this depreciation "expect higher value of remittances in peso terms," according to the report, noting that dollar inflows "tend to increase in the months of May and June" as overseas Filipinos send their dependent cash to pay for tuition fees and other school opening expenses.
The foreign exchange rate going against the peso–coupled with low inflation–"would provide more purchasing power to consumers," according to the FMIC and UA&P analysts.
The Filipino consumer’s purchasing power would draw strength from low inflation–helped by crude oil prices stabilizing at or below $100 per barrel in the world market, they noted.
Abola said the average inflation for the year would settle at 3.3 percent or within the 3.2 percent to 3.4 percent range, while the peso-dollar rate will move within the P42 to P44 band.
Consumer spending this year will be "unyielding" because of sustained strong performance of tourism-related businesses, the industry base and the services sector, they added.
Tourist arrivals in the first four months of the year grew by 14.6 percent to nearly 1.5 million visitors.
The Industry sector will likely expand by 6 percent to 7 percent, and the services sector even better at 7 percent to 8 percent. —VS, GMA News
UA&P decided to upgrade its Philippine GDP forecast from 5 percent to 6 percent “due to strong infrastructure and consumer spending," economist Victor Abola told reporters in a press briefing.
"Government expenditure is expected to further escalate and solid consumer spending to persist," FMIC and UA&P said in the briefing.
In their Market Call report released Tuesday, FMIC and UA&P said the peso may "mildly depreciate in the succeeding months to around P42.70 to P43.70 per dollar" because of the euro zone debt crisis.
With this depreciation "expect higher value of remittances in peso terms," according to the report, noting that dollar inflows "tend to increase in the months of May and June" as overseas Filipinos send their dependent cash to pay for tuition fees and other school opening expenses.
The foreign exchange rate going against the peso–coupled with low inflation–"would provide more purchasing power to consumers," according to the FMIC and UA&P analysts.
The Filipino consumer’s purchasing power would draw strength from low inflation–helped by crude oil prices stabilizing at or below $100 per barrel in the world market, they noted.
Abola said the average inflation for the year would settle at 3.3 percent or within the 3.2 percent to 3.4 percent range, while the peso-dollar rate will move within the P42 to P44 band.
Consumer spending this year will be "unyielding" because of sustained strong performance of tourism-related businesses, the industry base and the services sector, they added.
Tourist arrivals in the first four months of the year grew by 14.6 percent to nearly 1.5 million visitors.
The Industry sector will likely expand by 6 percent to 7 percent, and the services sector even better at 7 percent to 8 percent. —VS, GMA News
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